Posts tonen met het label BA4All. Alle posts tonen
Posts tonen met het label BA4All. Alle posts tonen

maandag 24 oktober 2016

Comments on a Peer Exchange on Shadow BI

Last October 18, I took part in a peer exchange with about 60 analytics professionals to reflect on three questions:
  • ·        What are the top three reasons for Shadow BI?
  • ·        What are the top three opportunities Shadow BI may bring to the organisation?
  • ·        What are the top three solutions for the issues it brings about?
brainstorm
One of the ten peer exchange products

The group process produced some interesting insights as indicated in the previous post.
Some of these remarks triggered me to elaborate a bit more on them.

Some of them download open source data science tools like Weka and KNIME and take it a step further using fancier regression techniques as well as machine learning and deep learning to come up with new insights.
There we have it: the citizen data scientist. A another big promise, launched by Gartner a couple of years ago. The suggestion that anyone can be a data miner is simply pie in the sky. Would you like to be treated by citizen brain surgeon?  I will not dwell on this too much but let me wrap it up with the term “spurious correlations” and a nice pic that says it all from Tyler Vigen’s website 


the myth of the citizen data scientist
A funny example of what happens when you mix up correlation with causation
Other, frequently mentioned reasons were the lack of business knowledge, changing requirements from the business  and the inadequate funding clearly indicate a troubled relationship between ICT and the business as the root cause for Shadow BI.
I wrote “Business Analysis for Business Intelligence” exactly for this reason. The people with affinity for and knowledge of both the business and the IT issues in BI are a rare breed.  And even if you find that rare species in your organisation, chances are you’re dealing with an IT profile that has done the BI trick a few times for a specific business function and then becomes a business analyst.  And worse, if this person come from application development, chances are high he or she will use what I call the “waiter’s waterfall method” . The term “waiter” meaning he or she will bring you exactly what you asked for. The term “waterfall” to describe the linear development path and by the time the “analytical product” is delivered, the business is already looking at new issues and complaining about obsolete information . Some participants at the peer exchange claimed that agile BI was the silver bullet but I beg to differ. The optimum solution is “infrastructural agility” which means two approaches. First you need complete insight in the data structure of minimally the business function impacted and preferably on an enterprise level. Only then can you challenge the requirements and indicate opportunities for better decision making by adding other data feeds. In a Big Data scenario you can add open data and other external data sources to that landscape. The second is about analysing the decision making processes your counterpart is involved in. The minimum scope is within his or her domain, the optimum analysis is the interactions of his or her domain with the enterprise domains.

Shadow BI can improve efficiency in decision making provided the data quality is fit for purpose. 
This is absolutely true: data quality in the sense of “fit for purpose” is a more agile approach to data quality than the often used “within specs” approach in data quality. Marketing will use a fuzzier definition of what a customer is but a very strict definition of who he is and where he is. Logistics will not even bother what a customer is as long as the package gets delivered on the right spot and someone signs for the goods reception. This means that enterprise master data strategies should manage the common denominator in data definitions and data quality but leave enough room for specific use of subsets with specific business and data quality rules.

This under-the-radar form of BI can also foster innovation as users are unrestrained in discovering new patterns, relationships and generate challenging insights.
Just as in any innovation process, not all shadow BI products may be valuable but the opportunity cost of a rigid, centralized BI infrastructure and process may be an order of magnitude greater than the cost of erroneous decision support material. On one condition:  if the innovation process is supported by A/B testing or iterative roll out of the newly inspired decision making support. I often use the metaphor of the boat and the rocket: if the boat leaks, we can still patch it and use a pump to keep the boat afloat but two rubber O-rings caused the death of the Challenger crew in 1986.
risks in decision making support
"Bet your company" decisions are better not based on shadow BI. 
The group came up with both technical and predominantly organizational and HRM solutions.
This proves for the nth time that Business Intelligence projects and processes are of a mixed nature between technical and psychological factors. It is no coincidence that I use concepts from Tversky and Kahneman and other psychologists who studied decision making in the business analysis process.

In conclusion

Strategy alignment and adopting operational systems and processes for analytical purpose were also mentioned in the peer exchange.  Exactly these two are the root causes of poor decision making support if poorly managed.
In the next post I will dig a bit deeper into these two major aspects. In the mean time, have a look at this sponsored message:

Bert Brijs author
The full story on strategy alignment and tuning organisations for better analytics is within reach






woensdag 19 oktober 2016

Shadow BI: shady or open for business?

Shadow BI is a common phenomenon in any organisation where the business has an Open or Microsoft Office on the PC; i.e. 99.9%  of the users can mash up data in spreadsheets, perform rudimentary descriptive and test statistics and some predictions using linear regression. Some of them download open source data science tools like Weka and KNIME and take it a step further using fancier regression techniques as well as machine learning and deep learning to come up with new insights.
On October 18, BA4All’s Analytic Insight 2016 had a peer exchange with about 60 analytics professionals to reflect on three questions:
  • ·        What are the top three reasons for Shadow BI?
  • ·        What are the top three opportunities Shadow BI may bring to the organisation?
  • ·        What are the top three solutions for the issues it brings about?

The most quoted reasons for Shadow BI


Eww! IT is taking some heavy flak from the business: “ICT lacks innovation culture”, “IT wants to control too much!” and especially the time IT takes to deliver the analytics was high on the list.
Other, frequently mentioned reasons were the lack of business knowledge, changing requirements from the business  and the inadequate funding clearly indicate a troubled relationship between ICT and the business as the root cause for Shadow BI.

Yet, opportunities galore!


Shadow BI can improve efficiency in decision making provided the data quality is fit for purpose.  In case of bad data quality it may provoke some lessons learned for the business as they are the custodians of data quality.
This under-the-radar form of BI can also foster innovation as users are unrestrained in discovering new patterns, relationships and generate challenging insights. and provide faster response to business questions.

Peer exchange on BI
A mix of tech and HR came up in the discussions

The top 3 solutions for issues with Shadow BI


The group came up with both technical and predominantly organizational and HRM solutions. Here are the human factors:
  • ·        market BI to the business and IT people,
  • ·        governance (also a technical remedy if the tools are in place)
  • ·        empowerment of the business
  • ·        adopt a fail fast culture
  • ·        knowledge sharing and documentation
  • ·        strategy alignment
  • ·        integrate analytical culture and competencies in the business
  • ·        engage early in the development process
And these are the technical factors:
  • ·        governance tools
  • ·        Self-service BI and data wrangling tools
  • ·        Sandboxes
  • ·        Optimise applications for analytics

For a discussion on some of the arguments we refer to our next post in a few days




vrijdag 28 november 2014

The Stockholm Papers on Self-Service BI

I had the pleasure of moderating a peculiar kind of brainstorm session in Stockholm called speed geeking, a process which will remain unrevealed to those who weren't present. Never mind the "how". Let's talk about the "what". The "what" is a set of interesting replies to the three theme questions on Self- Service Business Intelligence (SSBI)

The three theme questions discussed were:

  • Why do you use SSBI?
  • What are the major problems encountered?
  • Will IT become obsolete? (a more challenging version of "How will SSBI affect IT's role")

Why organisations use SSBI

The problems SSBI can solve are low BI service levels,  elicitating better requirements for the data warehouse as uses will see the gaps in the available data and providing a workaround for slow DWH/BI development tracks. But the majority of answers went in the direction of opening up new opportunities.
The number one reason for SSBI  is time to market: support faster decision making, explore the organisation's creativity better, enhance flexibility, innovation, exploration,.. it's all there. Some teams  came up with deep thoughts about organisational development: "Distributes fact based decision making" was a very sharp one as well as "getting the right information to the right person at the right moment" although both motivations will need to be managed carefully. Because SSBI is not a matter of opening up the data warehouse (or other data lakes) to everybody, the paradox is that the more users are empowered, the more governance and data management are needed.

Conclusion: as always, two approaches to this question emerge: either it solves a problem or it creates an opportunity. My advice is to look for opportunities if you want a concept, a technology  or a new business process to last. Because problem solvers will limit the new technology from the problem perspective which is a form of typecasting the technology whereas opportunity seekers will keep exploring the  new possibilities of a technology.

What are the major problems encountered?

SSBI is not a walk in the park for neither IT nor the business users.
Data quality management, as well as the related management of semantics and governance of master data are the principal bumps on the road. Lack of training is also high on the radar as well as performance and security and integrity. So far, no real surprises. But strangely enough, an issue like "usability" appeared. You'd think that this is the main reason of developing an SSBI platform but apparently it is also the main show stopper.

Conclusion: in this mixed audience of IT and business professionals I have noticed few defensive strategies. Yes, there are problems but they can be solved was the general mood I felt in the room. Maybe this is one of the reasons why Sweden is one of the most innovative societies in the world?

How will SSBI affect IT's role

There was a general consensus between the IT and the business professionals: IT will evolve into a new role when SSBI is introduced. They will develop a new ecosystem, optimise the infrastructure for SSBI and act as an enabler to advance the use of SSBI.
Other interesting suggestions were pointing towards new IT profiles emerging in this ecosystem like data scientists, integrators of quality data, managers of business logic form both internal and external systems. In short, the borders between IT and the business users will become vaguer over time.  But one remark was a bit less hopeful: one group concluded that the CIO is still far away from the business perspective.

Maybe that's because many CIOs come from the technology  curriculum and there are still organisations out there that do not consider ICT as a strategic asset. Every day I praise myself lucky that I worked in a mail order company, early in my career. The strategic role of ICT was never questioned there and it was no surprise that the CIO of my company became the CEO as customer data, service level data, financial data and HRM data were considered as the core assets.

maandag 26 mei 2014

Elections’ Epilogue: What Have We Learned?

First the good news: a MAD of 1.41 Gets the Bronze Medal of All Polls!

The results from the Flemish Parliament elections with all votes counted are:

Party
 Results (source: Het Nieuwsblad)
SAM’s forecast
20,48 %
18,70 %
Green (Groen)
8,7 %
8,75 %
31,88 %
30,32 %
Liberal democrats (open VLD)
14,15 %
13,70 %
13,99 %
13,27 %
5,92%
9,80%

Table1. Results Flemish Parliament compared to our forecast

And below is the comparative table of all polls compared to this result and the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) which expresses the level of variability in the forecasts. A MAD of zero value means you did a perfect prediction. In this case,with the highest score of almost 32 % and the lowest of almost six % in only six observations  anything under 1.5 is quite alright.

Table 2. Comparison of all opinion polls for the Flemish Parliament and our prediction based on Twitter analytics by SAM.

Compared to 16 other opinion polls, published by various national media our little SAM (Social Analytics and Monitoring) did quite alright on the budget of a shoestring: in only 5.7 man-days we came up with a result, competing with mega concerns in market research.
The Mean Absolute Deviation covers up one serious flaw in our forecast: the giant shift from voters from VB (The nationalist Anti Islam party) to N-VA (the Flemish nationalist party). This led to an underestimation of the N-VA result and an overestimation  of the VB result. Although the model estimated the correct direction of the shift, it underestimated the proportion of it.
If we would have used more data, we might have caught that shift and ended even higher!

Conclusion

Social Media Analytics is a step further than social media reporting as most tools nowadays do. With our little SAM, built on the Data2Action platform, we have sufficiently proven that forecasting on the basis of correct judgment of sentiment on even only one source like Twitter can produce relevant results in marketing, sales, operations and finance. Because, compared to politics, these disciplines deliver far more predictable data as they can combine external sources like social media with customer, production, logistics and financial data. And the social media actors and opinion leaders certainly produce less bias in these areas than is the -case in political statements. All this can be done on a continuous basis supporting day-to-day management in communication, supply chain, sales, etc...
If you want to know more about Data2Action, the platform that made this possible, drop me a line: contact@linguafrancaconsulting.eu 

Get ready for fact based decision making 
on all levels of your organisation





vrijdag 2 mei 2014

Questions to Ask Ralph Kimball the 10th June in 't Spant in Bussum (Neth.)

Dear Ralph,

I know you’re a busy man so I won’t take too much of your time to read this post. I look forward to meeting you June 10 in 't Spant in Bussum for an in depth session on Big Data and your views on the phenomenon.
In one of your keynotes you will address your vision on how Big Data drives the Business and IT to adapt and evolve. Let me first of all congratulate you with the title of your keynote. It proves that a world class BI and data warehouse veteran is still on top of things, which we can’t say for some other gurus of your generation, but let’s not dwell on that.
I have been studying the Big Data Phenomenon from my narrow perspective: business analysis and BI architecture and here are some of the questions I hope we can tackle during your keynote session:

1. Do you consider Big Data as something you can fit entirely in star schemas? I know since The Data Webhouse Toolkit days that semi structured data like web logs can find a place in a multidimensional model but some of the Big Data produce is to my knowledge not fit for persistent storage. Yet I believe that a derived form of persistent storage may be a good idea. Let me give you an example. Imagine we can measure the consumer mood for a certain brand on a daily basis, scanning the social media postings. Instead of creating a junk-like dimension we could build a star schema with the following dimensions: a mood dimension, social media source dimension, time, location and brand dimension to name the minimum and a central fact table with the mood score on a seven point Likert scale. The real challenge will lie in correctly structuring the text strings into the proper Likert score using advanced text analytics. Remember the wrong interpretation of the Osama Bin Laden tweets early May 2011? The program interpreted “death” as a negative mood when the entire US was cheering the expedient demise of the terrorist.
Figure 1: An example of derived Big Data in a multidimensional schema

2. How will you address the volatility issue?  Because Big Data’s most convincing feature is not volume, velocity or variety which have always been relative to the state of the art. No, volatility is what really characterizes Big Data and I refer to my article here where I point out that Big Behavioural Data is the true challenge for analytics as emotions and intentions can be very volatile and the Law of Large Numbers may not always apply.
3. Do you see a case for data provisioning strategies to address the above two issues? With data provisioning, I mean a transparent layer between the business questions and the BI architecture where ETL provides answers to routine or planned business questions and virtual data marts produce answers to ad hoc and unplanned business questions. If so, what are the major pitfalls of virtualization for Big Data Analytics?
4. Do you see the need for new methodologies and new modeling methods or does the present toolbox suffice?

It’s been a while since we met and I really look forward to meeting you in Bussum, whether you answer these questions or not. 


Kind regards,

Bert Brijs

donderdag 14 november 2013

Business Intelligence has become too big to allow failure.

Four speakers between Ralph Kimball’s sessions, four topics and one unifying thought: BI is getting to big to allow failure. The first Business Analytics for All Insight session which took place in Brussels the 12th November gathered over 250 attendees to hear Ralph Kimball’s insights on the data warehouse design principles and how the Big Data phenomenon fits in this architecture. I gladly refer to the Kimball Group’s website with articles like these for his vision on Big Data.  

But between Ralph’s talks in the morning and in the afternoon, four other topics were discussed which all lead to the same conclusion: BI has become too big, too much of a strategic commitment to allow for sloppy business analysis and project management.
Annelies Aquarius, European BI Project manager from the Coca-Cola Company illustrated the anytime- anything-anywhere aspects of mobile BI. Jelle Defraye from Laco made a case for self service BI.  Jos Van Dongen from SAS taught us the basics from data visualisation and Guy Van der Zande from USG ICT Professionals explained why a well organised BI Competence Center (BICC) is essential to manage technology trends and changing business requirements.

For a full description of their talks we refer to the website.

It is time for proper BI business analysis and project management

Let me explain my point. With the growth of users, user types, data a lot of side effects have come into play since the early days of DSS where you offloaded a few tables to make reports for the CFO.
Exabytes of data flowing in at incredibly high speeds from a myriad of data sources in structured, semi-structured and structured formats need to be exploited by more people in a faster decision making cycle which is not limited to the strategic apex anymore. Thus the feedback loops become more complicated as the one-to-many relationship of top management and the workforce now becomes a many-to-many relationship between more and more decision making actors in the organisation. Self service BI, mobile BI and visualisation are all part of the solution and the problem if your organisation has no duopolistic governance from IT and the business. because both business processes and data management processes need to be mutually adjusted to allow for maximum return on investment . The alternative is chaos. So there you have the true value of  a well working BICC.
But to get there and to stay on that level, only a thorough business analysis process and the proper BI project management method will increase the success rate of business analytics. This success rate worries me. Because after twenty years in this business I am still seeing failure rates of 80% in BI. If we’d had the same rate of improvement in medicine as in BI we would still be using leeches and bleeding our patients regardless of the disease.